CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-11-24T14:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-11-24T14:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18362/-1
CME Note: Visible in the SW in STEREO A COR2 and in the S in SOHO LASCO C2. Associated with an eruption near S30E20. Dimming and post-eruptive arcades visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 and EUVIA 195/304 beginning 2021-11-24T13:00Z. CME arrival marked by a sudden increase in B total, which reached 17 nT. Density and temperature also increased during the shock and pileup. The solar wind increased from 300 km/s to 380 km/s during the shock.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-11-27T21:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-11-27T13:24Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/18364/1 Model Inputs: 2021-11-24T14:09:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-3.0, Lat.=-16.0, Speed=561.0, HalfAngle=31.0, Time21.5=2021-11-24T19:47Z Model Output: Earth Impact: Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2021-11-27T13:24Z (+- 7 hours) Duration of disturbance (hr) =21.0 (+- 8 hours) Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.1 (kp)90=3 (kp)180=5 Other Location(s) Impact: Solar Orbiter with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-27T13:45Z STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-28T01:00Z STEREO B with esitmated shock arrival time 2021-11-27T14:00Z Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_B.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_B.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STB_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20211124_194700_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gifLead Time: 76.68 hour(s)
Difference: 8.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-11-24T17:09Z
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